Is this borrower’s or programme’s order book as solid as the model assumes?
A nuclear borrower’s revenue rests on a supply chain a credit file never reaches. The single point that could interrupt delivery is the one that isn’t in the model.
Settled as the Lending Evidence PackCredit diligence reads the accounts, the order book and the programme. It rarely reads the chain underneath them — the sub-tier sole-source whose failure would interrupt the deliveries the facility is lent against. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call.
What the order book actually rests on.
Typical reader: an infrastructure & nuclear lender or credit team.
The order books are growing — and RAB moves who funds the chain.
Sizewell C is financed on the Regulated Asset Base model established by the Nuclear Energy (Financing) Act 2022, with £14.2bn allocated over the Spending Review period and over £2.5bn to an SMR programme — the dated envelopes a lender prices against. But the chain underneath them is where a credit file stops looking, and under RAB a supplier’s revenue rests on Ofgem cost-allowance decisions and a Special Administration Regime, not just one EPC counterparty’s balance sheet — and the same sub-tier sole-source can sit under several borrowers a model reads as unrelated. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call. See what changed →